But first . . .
Thursday was Charles’s show.
Tim
Gunn, of Bravo's ‘Project Runway,’ told the Associated Press “he had a grin on his face throughout.” “I was blown away,” he said.
. . . But
[continued AP] the real show-stealers
were the civilian models, including a gray-haired woman who works at the U.S. mission to
the United Nations and a handful of children who walked the runway, one of them
reaching out to the press, retailers and socialites in the front row. . . .
F The beautiful
“gray-haired woman” was Senator Kerry’s sister, Peggy. The child reaching out unselfconsciously to
the press – a political career in the making – was Mari Rooney, Charles’s
niece, aged 3.
There was also a
human rights lawyer on her way back to Afghanistan (she has a proposal to
divert the poppy crop away from the Taliban for use, instead, in Third World
countries where there is a shortage of palliative medicinal opiates) . . . a third cousin to the Queen of England
. . . some pirouetting members of the American Ballet Theatre . .
. and our pal Ghyllian, a yoga instructor, and her
8-year-old niece Ashley.
Oh – and some
for-real models who earn anywhere from $1,200 to $8,000 for an hour’s work.
Click
here to see all 51 “looks” from the show, which Style.com called, “heartfelt, fun, and as American as apple pie.” (Don’t even think about buying any of the
men’s stuff – I can’t afford it, and
I get a steep discount.)
Here’s
word from the Cleveland Plain Dealer
style editor:
Why
isn't the name Charles Nolan better known? A wonderfully skilled designer,
Nolan cuts beautifully and thoughtfully for women of all shapes, sizes
and ages -- well-evidenced by his runway show on Thursday, in which
members of his staff and friends and family were sprinkled in among the
professional models on a makeshift runway set up in his studio workspace in a Chelsea loft.
They're
the clothes every woman should have in her closet, but
rarely seem to -- the perfectly cut khaki trenchcoat,
the well-seamed crisp white shirt, the wide-legged trouser. A few pieces here
and there over the years would add up to a lifetime of chic. Saks Fifth Avenue at Beachwood carries
a bit of the line -- pop in and try it on. You'll wonder why you haven't looked this
way your whole life.
F And not just Saks anymore. Lord and Taylor and Nordstrom are beginning to carry the line, as are some some smaller independent shops in places like Birmingham,
Grand Rapids, and Omaha.
And then there’s this (“Charles
Nolan: The Sleeper Hit”) from ALMOST
GIRL: “Was it
a show! . . . I saw piece after
piece that I wanted to buy, a first for me this season so far.”
And this
from AOL’s style page (“Although it can feel like a big
schlep to get to a show which isn’t in the Bryant Park tents – particularly on
day two of a taxi strike! – it was worth the trip to
get to Charles Nolan’s show yesterday in his West Chelsea
studio. . . . [Y]esterday’s looks were the kind of pieces with panache which make
you smile every time you see them in the closet
as you’re deciding what to wear.”)
Few people
noticed all the details. For example – every model
in every look was carrying a book, ranging from The Book of Common Prayer to Christopher Hitchens’
God Is Not Great to Bill Clinton’s Giving to Miroslav
Sasek’s This is
Rome to that old erotic classic, The
Story of O. (And, yes, one
investment guide.)
And how many
people would have imagined that Charles had painted the “scrim” – a 192-square
foot curtain – all by himself just a couple of nights before?
But they sure
noticed when the light came up behind
that innocuous beach scene and (as is the way with scrims), the scene
“disappeared” to reveal a tableaux of eight models in a still life, who then –
once the scrim was pulled aside for real – came to life one by one to walk out
onto the runway.
And if they
didn’t know what the FINCA
T-$hirts were (“small loans / big changes” – microlending that empowers women), they certainly noticed
how good everyone looked wearing them.
Okay.
Enough.
The holidays are coming. You’ve
got a wife? A girl
friend? A
sister? A
daughter? An
assistant? A
grand mama? Go ahead: make my
day. Buy her something nice.
And now . . .
FIRST MUD, NOW PAPER
The original
Aldabra, you may recall, was a blank-check company that chose to make itself
payable to Great Lakes Dredge & Dock, acquiring that old-line company (and
adopting its name and stock symbol: GLDD). Those were the warrants we did well with,
more or less quintupling or tentupling our bet,
depending on what we paid for the warrants, in about a year. Those of us who’ve exercised some or all of
the warrants find ourselves in the mud business. I, for one, feel very good about this.
Now the sequel, Aldabra 2, on which some
of us have also bought warrants,
has made a deal
to acquire a Boise Cascade paper products business. Newsprint, copy paper,
cardboard boxes. Ah, you say – has
no one told these people that newspapers are on the way out? That the paperless office is on the way
in? That Wal-Mart is leading the charge
toward less packaging? Well, my
shorthand answer is that these guys are pretty smart (albeit not infallible),
and may actually have considered some of that before choosing to spend $1.6
billion.
The investor presentation, a 42-page powerpoint, is here. The nub of it is on page 4:
We are buying a significant cash flow
generating and asset-rich business and believe the purchase price of 7.0X LTM
Adjusted EBITDA* . . . is attractive
. . . [the more so] considering Boise Cascade is nearing the completion of several extraordinary
capital spending programs to expand production of certain paper grades and
value-added products which should enable the business to grow EBITDA over the
near term.
In
addition to the attractive valuation, we believe the business benefits from
several unique customer relationships and positive industry dynamics. We
believe the paper industry is in the early stages of significant
rationalization due to consolidation, the closing of facilities, and the
application of financial discipline which should drive higher returns on
capital.
F Time will tell whether this investment
thesis is valid. If it is, and AII** climbs to $14.50 in the
next three and a half years or so before our warrants (currently $1.18) expire,
we will roughly sextuple our money (before tax). If the stock stays exactly where it is
($9.22), we’d make half a buck or so (the warrants give us the right to buy the
shares at $7.50), which works out to a gain of about 45% before tax. And if
it all tanks, as it could, we lose every cent, which is why you must only make this speculation with money you can truly afford to lose.
* Seven times last twelve months
adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
** Which will change its name to
Boise Paper Company if the transaction is completed.
DON’T SELL YOUR FMD
More reassurance from Tom Brown, who
follows this closely. (My own FMD
guru obviously agrees.)