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THE MORAL HIGH GROUND The DC City Council voted 12 to 1 to recognize marriages
performed in other states (like Iowa and now Maine). In case you missed Jon
Stewart last week, here’s
a quick clip of the one hold-out – former DC Mayor Marion Barry. Ah the righteous. Speaking of which, both Jon Stewart and Bill Press commented
last week on Obama’s discontinuation of the well-publicized National
Prayer Day services Bush conducted in the White House on each year . . .
quoting Jesus: “And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites,
for they love to pray on the street corners to be seen by men. . . . But when
you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is
unseen. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward
you.” Matthew 6:5-6. Oops. EUGENE ROBINSON MAKES THE CASE IN
THE WASHINGTON POST THE
best STOCK CHRIS HAS EVER SEEN Remember
CRTX written up here
at $3.80 three weeks ago? It closed Friday at $7.28. Here’s Chris
Brown’s latest thinking as offered to some of his investors. (I understand only the
portion I’ve bolded.) Earnings will slack off moderately in Q2 due to
generic competition on Hyflo, partially offset by continued growth in other
marketed products, which will continue to grow. Deal with Italian firm will
close in q3, causing essentially 100% dilution of shares. In exchange for
this, company gets $15 mil in cash and $30 mil revenue stream from surfactant
product which they feel they can grow considerably via market share gains (my
estimate is perhaps to $60 mil over three years). Margins on surfactant
revenue are unspecified but per conference call will be extremely high.
Disappointing that CEO and one other executive have sold shares at $5.50 as
part of the transaction. Company will be 51% owned by Italian firm after close
of transaction. Company states they will provide updated guidance on
rev/earnings at that time. Including the dilution, visibility for 2010 EPS is at
least 80 cents per share per my estimate vs. single analyst estimate of $1.27.
Given the run from $3.80, stock has certainly lost status as “most
undervalued I’ve ever seen,” could conceivable trade down to
mid-$6 range in coming weeks (8x my estimate of 2010 eps visibility). On the
other hand, solid long-term revenue and earnings growth seem extremely likely
once deal is consummated; for those with a long-term perspective, company is
still attractive, as management team and business fundamentals are very strong.
☞ So I hold on.
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