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The wealth in My old pal Charles Biderman,
of TrimTabs,
writes: The At 15.5% – which doesn’t include the cost of
coal or natural gas – the Yet,
believe it or not there’s still plenty of oil in the world. What there is a shortage
of is those willing to sell oil futures. There are 2.7 million open interest
contracts to buy 1,000 barrels of oil globally. One contract is worth $135,000.
Yet it costs big investors less than
$8,000 (6%) to buy one contract. Small
investors need put up all of $10,000. There is about $2 billion per month going
into commodity funds (CTAs). Another $750 million went into commodity ETFs over the past four weeks. If half that money was put to work buying oil
(as opposed to other commodities), that would be enough to buy 173,000
contracts, or an amount equal to 6% of the existing open interest, every month. And that doesn’t include hedge or pension
fund buying. Given how important oil prices are to the Then there’s the issue of margin. To buy a
stock you have to put up 50%. To buy 1,000 barrels of oil ($135,000) a big
investor need put up $8,000 (6%). If margin requirements were raised to 25%
the oil market would crack. But margin
requirements won’t be raised for one reason: income of the commodity exchanges and traders
would plummet. This
is true insanity, watching the world go broke while a handful of oil producing
nations – and oil traders – make huge fortunes. Why
don’t oil users fight back? The How
about if other oil users sold contracts short each month? How about if F I take from this a couple of points. First, that the
oil market – like the housing market or tech stock market – could collapse even
faster than it ballooned (oil has about doubled in the last year). If oil speculators owning all those futures
contracts come to believe the market will turn, they’ll rush to sell – and the
market will turn. Say hello to $70 oil. (Which until five minutes
ago would have been considered crazy high, and at which level we are still
allowing our wealth to be siphoned off . . . but only half as fast as now.) Second, that a competent
Administration (and perhaps one whose leaders were not both oil men) could be
doing far more about this – just as the Administration could easily have
averted the manipulated To understand the big picture – and its
links to Enron and, yes, sorry, to John McCain and his top economic advisors –
please watch last night’s eye-opener
from MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann. It takes a while
to load, but it’s worth it. Even at $70 a
barrel (or whatever), our oil stocks are worth holding for the long term, because,
over the long term, oil prices likely will
keep rising as demand from China and India, et al, keeps rising and the planet’s
cheap reserves keep dwindling. But the good news
is that, if Charles Biderman and others are right, we
actually could see the price fall back significantly for a while, as we race –
if we’re smart – to do all we can to become more fuel efficient and less
fossil-fuel dependent.
© 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 Andrew Tobias