Now here’s
one of the more important columns you may ever read.
Bobby Kennedy Jr. in
the May Vanity
Fair:
Last November, Lord (David) Puttnam
debated before Parliament an important bill to tackle global warming. Addressing industry and government warnings
that we must proceed slowly to avoid economic ruin, Lord Puttnam
recalled that precisely 200 years ago Parliament heard identical caveats during
the debate over abolition of the slave trade.
At that time slave commerce
represented one-fourth of Britain’s
G.D.P. and provided its primary source of cheap, abundant energy. Vested interests warned that financial
apocalypse would succeed its prohibition.
That debate lasted roughly a year, and Parliament, in the end,
made the moral choice, abolishing the trade outright. Instead
of collapsing, as slavery’s proponents had predicted, Britain’s
economy accelerated. Slavery’s
abolition exposed the debilitating inefficiencies associated with zero-cost
labor; slavery had been a ball and chain not only for the slaves but also for
the British economy, hobbling productivity and stifling growth. Now creativity and productivity surged. Entrepreneurs seeking new sources of energy
launched the Industrial Revolution and inaugurated the greatest era of wealth
production in human history.
Today, we don't need to
abolish carbon as an energy source in order to see its inefficiencies starkly,
or to understand that this addiction is the principal drag on American
capitalism. The evidence is before our eyes. The practice of borrowing a billion dollars
each day to buy foreign oil has caused the American dollar to implode. More than a trillion dollars in annual
subsidies to coal and oil producers have beggared a nation that four decades
ago owned half the globe's wealth. Carbon dependence has eroded our economic
power, destroyed our moral authority, diminished our international influence
and prestige, endangered our national security, and damaged our health and
landscapes. It is subverting everything we value.
We know that nations that “decarbonize”
their economies reap immediate rewards. Sweden
announced in 2006 the phaseout of all fossil fuels
(and nuclear energy) by 2020. In 1991
the Swedes enacted a carbon tax—now up to $150 a ton—and as a result thousands
of entrepreneurs rushed to develop new ways of generating energy from wind, the
sun, and the tides, and from woodchips, agricultural waste, and garbage. Growth rates climbed to upwards of three
times those of the U.S.
Iceland was 80 percent
dependent on imported coal and oil in the 1970s and was among the poorest
economies in Europe. Today, Iceland is 100
percent energy-independent, with 90 percent of the nation’s homes heated by
geothermal and its remaining electrical needs met by hydro. The International Monetary Fund now ranks Iceland the fourth most affluent nation on earth. The country, which previously had to beg for
corporate investment, now has companies lined up to relocate there to take
advantage of its low-cost clean energy.
It should come as no surprise that California,
America’s
most energy-efficient state, also possesses its strongest economy.
The United States
has far greater domestic energy resources than Iceland or Sweden does. We sit atop the second-largest geothermal
resources in the world. The American
Midwest is the Saudi Arabia of wind; indeed, North Dakota, Kansas,
and Texas
alone produce enough harnessable wind to meet all of
the nation’s electricity demand. As for
solar, according to a study in Scientific
American, photovoltaic and
solar-thermal installations across just 19 percent of the most barren desert land in the Southwest could
supply nearly all of our nation’s electricity needs without any rooftop
installation, even assuming every American owned a plug-in hybrid.
In America,
several obstacles impede the kind of entrepreneurial revolution we need. To begin with, that
trillion dollars in annual coal-and-oil subsidies gives the carbon industry a
decisive market advantage. Meanwhile, an
overstressed and inefficient national electrical grid can’t accommodate new
kinds of power. At the same time, a byzantine array of local rules impede
access by innovators to national markets.
There are a number
of things the new president should immediately do to hasten the
approaching boom in energy innovation. A
carbon cap-and-trade system designed to put downward pressure on carbon
emissions is quite simply a no-brainer. Already
endorsed by Senators McCain, Clinton, and Obama, such a system would measure
national carbon emissions and create a market to auction emissions credits. The supply of credits is then reduced each
year to meet pre-determined carbon-reduction targets. As supply tightens, credit value increases,
providing rich monetary rewards for innovators who reduce carbon. Since it is precisely targeted, cap-and-trade is more effective than a
carbon tax. It is also more
palatable to politicians, who despise taxes and love markets. Industry likes the system’s clear goals. This market-based approach has a proven track
record.
There’s a second
thing the next president should do, and it would be a strategic masterstroke:
push to revamp the nation’s antiquated
high-voltage power-transmission system so that it can deliver solar, wind,
geothermal, and other renewable energy across the country. Right now, a Texas wind-farm manager who wants to get his
electrons to market faces two huge impediments.
First, our regional power grids are overstressed and misaligned. The biggest renewable-energy
opportunities—for instance, Southwest solar and Midwest
wind—are outside the grids’ reach. Furthermore,
traveling via alternating-current (A.C.) lines, too much of that wind farmer’s
energy would dissipate before it crossed the country. The nation urgently needs more investment in
its backbone transmission grid, including new direct-current (D.C.) power lines
for efficient long-haul transmission. Even
more important, we need to build in “smart” features, including storage points
and computerized management overlays, allowing the new grid to intelligently
deploy the energy along the way. Construction
of this new grid will create a marketplace where utilities, established
businesses, and entrepreneurs can sell energy and efficiency.
The other obstacle is the web of arcane and conflicting state
rules that currently restrict access to the grid. The federal government needs to work with
state authorities to open up the grids, allowing clean-energy innovators to
fairly compete for investment, space, and customers. We need open markets where hundreds of local
and national power producers can scramble to deliver economic and environmental
solutions at the lowest possible price. The
energy sector, in other words, needs an initiative analogous to the 1996
Telecommunications Act, which required open
access to all the nation’s telephone lines.
Marketplace competition among national and local phone companies
instantly precipitated the historic explosion in telecom activity.
Construction of efficient and open-transmission marketplaces and
green-power-plant infrastructure would require about a trillion dollars over
the next 15 years. For roughly a third of the projected cost of the Iraq war we
could wean the country from carbon. And
the good news is that the government doesn’t actually have to pay for all of
this. If the president works with
governors to lift constraints and encourage investment, utilities and private
entrepreneurs will quickly step in to revitalize the grid and recover their
investment through royalties collected for transporting green electrons. Businesses
and homes will become power plants as individuals cash in by installing solar
panels and wind turbines on their buildings, and by selling the stored
energy in their plug-in hybrids back to the grid at peak hours.
Energy expert and former C.I.A. director R. James Woolsey
predicts: “With rational market incentives
and a smart backbone, you’ll see capital and entrepreneurs flooding this field
with lightning speed.” Ten percent
of venture-capital dollars are already deployed in the clean-tech sector, and
the world’s biggest companies are crowding the space with capital and
scrambling for position.
The president’s final priority must be to connect a much smarter
power grid to vastly more efficient buildings and machines. We have barely scratched the surface here. Washington
is a decade behind its obligation, first set by Ronald Reagan, to set
cost-minimizing efficiency standards for all major appliances. With the conspicuous exception of Arnold
Schwarzenegger’s California,
the states aren’t doing much better. And
Congress keeps setting ludicrously tight expiration dates for its
energy-efficiency tax credits, frustrating both planning and investment. The new president must take all of this in
hand at once.
The benefits to America
are beyond measure. We will cut annual trade and budget deficits by hundreds of billions,
improve public health and farm production, diminish global warming, and create
millions of good jobs. And for the first
time in half a century we will live free from Middle Eastern wars and
entanglements with petty tyrants who despise democracy and are hated by their
own people.
Environmentalist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is
president of the Waterkeeper Alliance, a non-governmental organization
that promotes clean water throughout the world.
F We can do this, people.
Tomorrow (which you can read today): Food.
Wednesday (which you can read tomorrow,
and thus, today): Equality. (And a safe-ish way to short the market.)