Last month still
has me reeling. First I learn I
may live forever. Kurzweil has me truly believing. Then I learn we’re
all going to die in 2030. That’s when Bill
Joy suggests a bright but disgruntled teenager may have the ability to turn the
biosphere to dust.
So do I floss or don’t I floss?
A BIT MORE JOY
. . . because of the recent rapid and
radical progress in molecular electronics - where individual atoms and
molecules replace lithographically drawn transistors - and related nanoscale
technologies, we should be able to meet or exceed the Moore's law rate of progress for another 30
years. By 2030, we are likely to be able
to build machines, in quantity, a million times as powerful as the personal
computers of today - sufficient to implement the dreams of Kurzweil and
Moravec [and me].
As this enormous computing power is
combined with the manipulative advances of the physical sciences and the new,
deep understandings in genetics, enormous transformative power is being
unleashed. These combinations open up
the opportunity to completely redesign the world, for better or worse: The
replicating and evolving processes that have been confined to the natural world
are about to become realms of human endeavor.
Read it for yourself.